Politicians are riding anger, promising things that will be impossible to maintain. Without Europe, the funds to the regions that need it most will disappear . It will be a Stew Europe. Europe of the Great Illusion. We’ll have the European Union of the Baltic countries. That of the Danubian panslavics where the populisms and nationalisms will have their best.
The only certainty is the uncertainty. Of the present, and of the immediate future . In long term , Brexit it’s an arrival point, not the staring one, as someone in a firefighter costume tries to convince people. Europe as we imagined, it’s dead at dawn on June 24, 2016, when the British referendum results became official. Stocks collapsing. Chancelleries boiling. Stunned governments. NATO in early warning. The Kremlin celebrating.
Over all stands the inevitable Circus Jackal of the narrow nationalism, with singers fromt the small countries, with the populist euroscepticism nourished by Putin. The Domino effect that popular press likes a lot, to the trash TV and experts of sensationalism already in place : there is someoen that blows with all the breath on fire but does not warn that the fire can hurt. It is a power struggle, not to help those who don’t have it. That will always have less.
Let’s see a moment the Domino environment. Although European leaders have planned to play down the situation and to speed up the divorce proceedings from London, there is a very precise message that makes its way between the capital of European Union: that the British shouldn’t delude themselves that they can continue to take advantage of the internal market without participating in the EU budget: “Leave means leave”, if you leave, you leave, is the mantra of the German Manfred Weber, President of the European People’s Party (conservative) to the European Parliament, very close to Chancellor Angela Merkel. For Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Commission, Brexit is an act of “self-mutilation”. In short, moods tend not to reassemble the pieces of the broken vase.
If we want to be realistic, after Brexit, in pole position there is Grexit. What will happen? Exit calles exit. Marine Le Pen has wasted no time: already invokes Frexit. Eurosceptics gloating: how nice! Let’s smash this Europe ruled by banks, watching us with sharp-eyed ruthlessness (that catches cheaters: the real problem …), which obliges us to inane rules.
There will be a Stew Europe
Enough with the Europe of the bureaucrats. There is an explosion of claims that smacks of anarchy and ungovernability. Anger clouds the reason. Politicians ride anger, promising things that will be impossible to maintain. Without Europe, the funds to the regions that need it most will disappear . It will be a Stew Europe. Europe of the Great Illusion. We’ll have the European Union of the Baltic countries. The Pan-Slavic Danubian Europe: and you know how that turned out twenty years ago, in the Balkans, where people were slaughtered without mercy for identity and religious divisions to divisions of territories and local powers . The economies of those countries that have emancipated themselves with Kalashnikovs and mortars, with ethnic cleansing and the rise of racism and xenophobia, are in asphyxiation. Without the EU, “they would go to the dogs”.
With this Europe fed to petty nationalists, Ukraine will be abandoned to his fate. Scandinavia that has always been wary of southern Europe, will hole up in his hypocrit Nordic refuge. Even the civilized Holland is in the grip of gasps and xenophobic extremism increasingly disturbing. The insecurity alibi could foment dangerous divisions, and bring the imitation of the “splendid isolation” made in Britain. Imagine a Europe fragmented into dozens of areas of identity, every man for himself God for all!